Posted by Paul Horrell at 12:00PM on Thursday 12 June, 2008 23 Comments
I nearly choked at the front page of the Telegraph yesterday.
It said demand for petrol in the UK has fallen 20 per cent in the past year. Apparently we're driving less because the price has gone up so fast.
Hmmm... I have one question. If we're driving less, why isn't there less traffic?
OK, It might not have fallen by 20 per cent: let's say the number of trucks and buses has stayed the same. Let's say the number of diesel-powered miles in cars has remained the same too.
But whatever way you look at it, petrol-powered cars surely account for half the vehicles on the road, so if their use has fallen by 20 per cent, traffic must have fallen by 10 per cent.
You'd notice 10 per cent.
A small increase in traffic around the limits of the road network capacity makes a huge difference to congestion. It's what happens in London in the school holidays, when the city goes from clogged to fluid as if by magic.
And according the RAC Motoring Foundation, (I just asked them) congestion - a direct measure of traffic - is actually still rising.
Or maybe lots of fuel-inefficient cars have been replaced by fuel-efficient ones, so the traffic stays the same.
Well, people don't change their cars very often so that wouldn't account for so drastic a change in just a year.
Or maybe people are leaving their Range Rover at home and doing trips in their Clio. Which doesn't seem too likely to me.
Or maybe people are driving more economically. Again I'm sceptical, so I checked. The RAC Foundation said if we all of us adopted super-economic driving, consumption would drop by only about seven per cent. So that isn't the answer either.
So, you're clever, what do you think? Explain to me how so many people are managing to drive around propelled by thin air.
23 Comments for "Fuelled by air?"
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I have to say I have noticed a drop in traffic on my commute, particularly in the last couple of weeks. Maybe I'm just lucky and there are less people on the school run on my route...
Well, if I was going to moderate my driving to save petrol, I would cut out "frivolous" driving before my daily commute. So perhaps during peak times there are just as many cars on the roads, but during off peak, there are less (which would also be less noticeable).
Taxed to the hilt! Why dont you upset Clarkson by sticking him in a Tesla, Lightning or a Phoenix electric cars?
I reckon it simply that somebody at the Telegraph has been on a heavy night out...and was still bit drunk at work next day and got 20% increase confused with decrease......or if there correct maybe the top gear team have been secretly removing all tractors, caravan drivers,camper(holiday)vans,middle lane hoggers, and pretty much anybody else who shouldnt ever be on the road...this would give you the 20% decrease????
Reduced use of fuel could be from people driving less at times/places that aren't congested.
I'd presume rather than picking any one of those factors and concentrating on it, as you have done (in the interests of amusingly OTT TG banter, I hope), it's a subtle combination of all of them. When prices round my way are typically 30-40% higher now than they were this time last year, something's got to give. Less journeys, at a lower speed, and a horrible feeling of the usual thrill of putting my foot down being instead replaced by a mental twinge in my wallet and cursing the traffic/over-run at work/waking up late that's caused it, rather than doing it for fun.
The results in a 1.6 litre Astra are typical economy going up from low to mid 30s, to just over 40mpg average. Which is quite a big percentage, and I'm considering pushing that out much further by chopping in the now 10-year-old pig-iron lump for a newer, lighter TDi, or adding a 125cc bike to my stable. Crossed with reducing the distance travelled at said higher economy and a few other bits and pieces (and to chuck in a friend's example, taking a coach to the lake district on his hols instead of his usual of driving a Mondeo up and around there, generally at high speed), it all adds up.
Only a few percent for each thing maybe, but four lots of 5% roughly makes 20%...
emand for fuel is not going to change anytime in the near future. People still need to get to work, school, play, or a holiday. I understand that "speculation" of demand has driven the price of crude oil worldwide up drastically as well as refined fuel prices. So, to have a decrease in demand without any noticeable decrease in cars usage only leaves one thing that can change - the supply.
Congestion (outside of London, at least) is only really an issue at peak commuter times. People still need to get to and from work, so congestion doesn't change. But maybe there's less traffic outside of "rush hour" - people are not driving as often when it's not absolutely necessary.
Maybe its because people are driving around in chip oil/biofuel powered cars from Diesel Dave a lot more!
I know someone who's trying to find a ã1k Micra to use instead of his Cupra for work, I've done it myself with a second car instead of the Corrado. The guzzlers are becoming weekend toys.
Has 2 car ownership gone up?
It's simple - you shouldn't believe anything you read in the papers. They made it up because they don't want the facts to get in the way of a good story.
Not wishing to sound too obvious, but maybe it was "all of the above", a combination of more efficient vehicles, rush hour journeys in smart cars rather than Chelsea tractors (i.e. just as many cars causing congestion), less people "just going for a ride", driver education in how to drive economically (something that I learned from JC when he drove an Audi to Edinburgh and back!) all add up to 20%. Let's face it the eco warriors are winning, we need a reduction in fuel consumption so let's hope it's not a statistical faux pas.
A large percentage of all car trips are discretionary. Everyone has to go to work, generally at about the same time. Thus, lots on congestion (school closing do more to spread out the timing of commutes than to reduce the number of cars on the road). However, a lot of people have stopped making the non-rush hour discretionary trips.
I have the same question. The news keeps reporting less driving here in the states as well but I really do not see it. I have noticed people taking public transportation more though! Public transportation is to be desired depending on where you are in the states of course. Not feasible for those outside the major cities by a long shot. Good entry on your blog!
Perhaps people are not driving for pleasure so much.
People have to get to work and endure congestion so that does not change.
My theory is that the roadworks, which most of the time have no-one working there restrict speed & I reckon thats their pupose, working together with 'calming' measures these projects exist to justify additional prices on driving as congestion appears to rise.
How about this, the priority measures that the government has been implementing for public road transport like bus lanes and light sequencing etc have actually caused greater congestion and therefore even though the number of car miles has decreased congestion remains visibly the same?
we know train passenger numbers have increased massively yet there has been no visible decrease in congestion. Other public transport use also appears to be increasing so although individuals appear to be cutting car journeys. May be the commercial lorries, public transport and most of all the government priority policies are more responsible for congestion than the individual?
Petrol is not needed on cars only. Actually most petrol demands come from industries and not from cars. If UK industries are less or improved their fuel efficiency there's your answer.
furthermore you should not look for anything in particular, it's a stack phenomenon. you cut a bit from here and a bit there and without noticing it, without anything too drastic you need 20% less petrol.
I just loved your comment about drivers driving more economically... i don't believe that for a second... Driving style cannot change easily.
It's not the amount of cars on the road, but rather the overall pattern of the way people are driving that is causing congestion...
It's by people who go 70 MPH one minute, then 50 mph another, then 70 MPH again.. then finally crashing... = congestion.
If everyone one was on cruse control at roughly the same speed then traffic would flow much better. If you've got an idiot on vespa going 15 MPH in the fast lane.. thats going to cause congestion.
All the slow people are in the other lanes.. going slow, and all the people who want to go are in the fast lane, except for that one idiot whose going as slow as the people in the slow lane. Make sense? Good!
*DISCLAIMER: none of this theory has been proven by any official testing guys with big goggles that make there eyes look like bugs, white lab coats that make them look like hilary clinton in a white dress and clip boards... yes clipboards*
I don't think they're powered by air so much as lies. Government surveys can take a couple of years to analyze, right? So any conclusions on this year, even privately run, are probably optimistic sentiments at best. That or people have been trading in caravans for air fare.
There may be alternatives out there. By alternatives I mean CNG, LPG, Bio fuels and that sort of thing. If we sum all of them up we may actually stumble upon 20 percent of those petrolists to may have shifted to alternative (not so pokey but) economical fuels.
The cars causing jams are not the cars used by people with the option to drive less when petrol prices go up. The 10% is people not driving places they don't need to be, probably late at night (or just "off-peak" in general). Rush-hour traffic, in London, would be in the last 10% to disappear, not the first.
I wouldn't be surprised to see petrol's market share has fallen in the wake of hybrids and better diesels. Combined with more efficient cars, people using their "town cars" more, and driving more economically would all add up to make a big change too... there's not only one reason demand has fallen.
More than likely we are seeing a decrease in longer motorway jaunts, shorter trips, and as was pointed out, more efficient fuel consumption. Fewer trips to visit the mum will be welcomed by their sons-in-law, who will happily quip that they are doing their best to save a few pounds by "not coming 'round as often." I think this 20% decrease will reach a 30% maximum as petrol prices continue to rise. As prices climb, there will obviously be more call for public transport, also contributing to this decrease.
I think the answer is fairly simple. You only notice congestion when it's actually happening to you ie at the times of day when people HAVE to use their cars to get to work, school etc. What is happening is that people are limiting their car usage to when it's essential, and avoiding using it at evenings and weekends when the roads are normally quieter and one doesn't tend to notice congestion. People are tightening their belts, so days out at weekends and trips to restaurants, pubs and the cinema are less frequent, hence the drop in fuel usage. The reason diesel usage hasn't dropped is that it is used by commercial vehicles that have to be on the road, and an increasing proportion of both new and used cars being sold are diesel versions.